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In Uzbekistan "have buried" the president

www.ng.ru, 06.03.2003

The Tashkent clans divide authority, leaning(basing) on hearings about death of Islam Каримова

Vladimir МУХИН, Marina КОЖУШКО, Tatyana РУБЛЕВА

On Moscow hearings about the hardest disease and even death of the president of Uzbekistan of Islam Каримова have spread. The press-service of embassy of Uzbekistan in Moscow categorically has denied this information. Direct acknowledgement(confirmations) of death of the president really are not present, however mini-investigation "НГ" has shown, that, denying similar hearings, the environment of the president can not prove the opposite. Anyway, since the last days off the president with anybody did not meet and did not participate nor in any actions. Nobody saw it(him), it(he) was not shown before television cameras. In the meantime from different sources the information that since last year Каримов seriously was sick acts. All receptions and working meetings Islam Каримов carried out(spent) last time in residence Оксарой near Tashkent. In this connection hearings that after the death of "present" Каримова latent from the public in Оскарое his(its) double operates have appeared, and the environment starts to divide authority. Hearings have seriously aggravated a situation in Uzbekistan.
On that in the country fierce struggle began from authority, a series of recent significant rearrangements among the important heads (хакимов) in areas, the Supreme court and the government of Uzbekistan specifies, in particular. Many significant posts at the end of December were borrowed(occupied) with natives of a so-called Samarkand clan which privately heads ex-premieres and present adviser Karimova Ismail Dzhurabekov, nicknamed the grey cardinal.

It(he) is supported with the chapter of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of republic Zakir Алматов.

Thanking Джурабекову which during the USSR held a post of minister of a water management of Uzbekistan, Каримов at the end of 90th has left to Olympus authorities in republic. In 1999 Джурабеков was dismissed from a post of the prime minister (under informal data - ostensibly for communications(connections) with наркоторговцами), but nevertheless has managed to defend the positions, becoming(beginning) after a while adviser Karimova for an agriculture.

In a counterbalance джурабековцам-самаркандцам around Каримова other clan - tashkentsko-Fergana is concentrated also. Among men of weight of this group - the employee of the device of president Timur Alimov and the chapter of military department RU Kadyr Guljamov which consist in related communications(connections). Both policy(politics) are known for the pro-Western orientation. Кадыр Гулямов - the son of known poet Gafura Guljama, in the past on formation(education) - физик-ядерщик. It(he) never served in army, but radical changes are connected to his(its) arrival to Ministry of Defence in structure of power ministries and departments of the country. Today in his(its) hands management practically all power structures (internal armies, boundary armies, the Ministry of Emergency Measures) is concentrated except for militia and Service нацбезопасности.

As inform military sources, Гулямов supports support of possible(probable) antiIraq actions of USA from air station " Ханабад ". The price of a question - reequipment of the Uzbek army under standards of the NATO in cost approximately in 1 billion dollars. "Ташкентцы" well understand importance of support on the part of USA as consider, that in case of death Каримова the friendly arrangement of Washington will provide practically hundred-per-cent victory of this group in struggle for authority in Uzbekistan.

Third influential political force in the country now is represented by "neutral" prime minister Utkir of Sultans. Worked long time in Russia, it(he) to a certain extent дистанцирован from clans also adheres пророссийской to orientation. Sultans was at informal summit of chapters of the CIS in Kiev at the end of January of this year where, in opinion of analysts, has got known support of Moscow in a case передела authorities in republic. To support Султанова can самаркандцы. Though bloody collisions in the country hardly can be avoided. Except for political contradictions, Uzbekistan it is simply larded by interethnic problems. And the Samarkand clan personifies interests of the Tadjik ethnos which compactly lives in territory of the Samarkand and Bukhara areas, and also in a southeast of republic.

It is possible, that in case of the beginning of struggle for authority power(force) departments will divide(share) by an ethnic principle. This factor gives the basis to speak, that concentration of management and authority power(force) departments in hands Гулямова will not be strong, and without the external help will win to it(him) difficultly. Really, in case of an aggravation of conditions in Uzbekistan the world community can rise before necessity of input for Uzbekistan peace-making forces. It is possible, that Кадыров will ask the help for USA. Sultans - at Russia. Who here will show more resoluteness - Washington or Moscow? The answer to this question while is unknown. Though in conditions of possible(probable) war with Iraq occurrence of one more hot point in the centre of Asia is obviously undesirable.

As already now in Uzbekistan there is a fierce struggle for a choice внешнеполитической orientations. To support or to not support actions of the antiIraq coalition headed by USA, is the important fatal decision which can define(determine) development of the country for many years forward. Pressure of Washington in this question obviously. After refusal of the majority of the countries of Near East and Southern Asia to support actions of the Pentagon and his(its) allies in possible(probable) war with Iraq Americans are very interested in using the largest in the Central Asia military base "Ханабад" (the Kashkadarinskai area, Uzbekistan) for drawing airimpacts on territory of Iraq.

The problem of forthcoming change of authority faces to all Islamic states of the CIS. It is no secret, that the majority of these states is headed with people very elderly. And if they strong hold authority in the hands by virtue of that is old party workers, past training of hardware struggle in Soviet time him(it) on change there are arrogant young leaders, is far from being so unequivocally capable of independent actions. In one countries it will result in a political opposition of groupings and clans, in others - is fraught with occurrence of confrontations. Thus, the nearest some years can transform the Central Asia and in part Transcaucasia into the continuous center of conflicts.

March, 6 2003